Market analysts can be so fixated on the short-term impact of a recession, that they may miss some important long-term trends that the inflation spike and recession fears are masking. The dual hit of the COVID pandemic and the resurgence of a Cold War environment are causing changes to the corporate supply chains and free trade that have been rapidly globalizing for the last three decades. The question we are asking this quarter is, have we hit a fundamental, decade-long inflection point where higher interest rates are sustained, corporate profits become constrained, and the risk appetite for stocks and bonds becomes more restrained?